Mallorca weather for 30 days: a month between forecast and average

1Mallorca weather 30 days: forecast and daily averages for Palma

Averages of past years at the station Palma Puerto (AEMET B228). Not a forecast. Fuente: AEMET.

Only the top rows are a forecast, from MET Norway for Palma and up to 10 calendar days ahead. All the rows after that, up to day 30, are labelled not a forecast. For each date they show the average high, the average low and in how many of the 15 years at least 1 mm of rain fell.

Over 30 days, that makes around two thirds of the table averages. Anyone searching for 25 days finds the answer in the same rows.

2How the weather in Mallorca shifts within a month in autumn

Looking 30 days ahead in autumn almost always means looking across a month boundary. The average high in Palma is 28.3 °C in September, 25.1 °C in October and 20.3 °C in November. The average low falls from 21.0 °C in September through 17.6 °C in October to 13.3 °C in November.

Rain increases too. In October Palma gets on average 63.1 mm on 4.9 rain days, in November 87.3 mm on 8.1 rain days. The average sea temperature off the Bay of Palma is 23.5 °C in October and 20.0 °C in November.

A 30-day window that starts in mid-October therefore reaches into a month with different averages. Where your date falls in between is shown by the daily rows of the table above.

3A month in Mallorca in spring: from March to May

In spring the movement runs the other way. The average high in Palma rises from 18.1 °C in March through 20.4 °C in April to 23.5 °C in May. In March there are on average 6.1 rain days, in April 4.7 rain days and in May 3.0 rain days.

The sea shows the difference between two months clearly. The average sea temperature off the Bay of Palma is 16.3 °C in April and 18.9 °C in May. The sea temperature page compares all months.

4What monthly forecasts for Mallorca can do: weekly trends up to day 46

At ECMWF they are now called sub-seasonal forecasts, previously extended-range or monthly forecasts. They reach up to day 46 and, according to ECMWF, mainly describe how far a week on average departs from the long-term normal, in other words whether it is likely to be warmer or cooler than usual for the time of year.

For a 30-day window that means there are statements about weeks, but none about single days in Palma.

5Seasonal outlooks for Mallorca: Copernicus C3S and AEMET

Seasonal forecasts reach further still. According to its own description, the Copernicus Climate Change Service C3S combines the systems of several centres, including ECMWF, the Met Office, Météo-France and the German weather service DWD, and shows means over one month and over three months for the coming six months. The Spanish weather agency AEMET publishes its seasonal forecast for the following three months between the 25th and the 30th of each month, as a probability in terciles.

A statement such as warmer than normal therefore applies to weeks or months, not to the 12th day of your holiday.

6What day-by-day weather over 30 days is worth for Mallorca

Pages that show a temperature and a weather symbol for each of the next 30 days look precise. A forecast for a single day, however, only holds for around 10 days. What comes after that is mainly weekly and monthly means as a departure from normal. No dependable daily weather for Palma can be read from them.

This page therefore separates the two visibly: the forecast at the top, the 15-year average below. Both are useful, as long as it is clear which is which.

7Planning a month in Mallorca: month, calendar, climate table

• Travel month: The month pages such as October or November show temperatures, rain days and the sea for the whole month.
• Exact travel days: In the weather calendar you choose arrival and departure and see the averages for exactly that period, including across a month boundary.
• Comparing months: The climate table sets all twelve months side by side.
• Closer to the trip: Three weeks before, Mallorca weather 21 days helps, and around 10 days before, 14 days or 16 days.