Mallorca weather for 14 days: forecast and average

1The 14 days for Palma de Mallorca at a glance

Averages of past years at the station Palma Puerto (AEMET B228). Not a forecast. Fuente: AEMET.

The view has two parts. At the top are the days for which MET Norway supplies a forecast, usually nine or ten. Below, in a separate table, come the remaining days up to day 14, labelled as averages and not as a forecast.

For those days the table gives the mean of the highs and of the lows, plus the number of years out of 15 in which 1 mm of rain or more fell on that date. The readings come from the AEMET station Palma Puerto, which sits at a height of 3 m.

2How sure are days 8 to 14 in the Mallorca weather

• Days 8 to 10, forecast as a trend: For Mallorca, MET Norway calculates with the high-resolution ECMWF model up to day 10. There the values only come in blocks of six hours. Read warmer or cooler, drier or wetter from them, but not an exact temperature.
• Days 11 to 14, a look back only: This is where the source ends. What the table shows is what was usual on those calendar days in Palma in past years. It says nothing about whether your day will be warmer or wetter than usual.

The line is drawn firmly on purpose. A day 12 with a sun symbol and an exact temperature would suggest a certainty that does not exist.

3What an ensemble reveals about day 14 in Mallorca

ECMWF names two sources of error: nobody knows the state of the atmosphere at the start exactly, and every model only approximates reality. Both amplify as the lead time grows.

That is why, for the medium range, ECMWF does not calculate just one path but an ensemble of 51 forecasts up to 15 days ahead: one control run and 50 runs with slightly altered initial conditions and model physics. According to ECMWF, the greater the spread of results, the greater the uncertainty. For day 14, that spread is the information itself, and a single value per day hides it.

The data on this page does not include that range. That is why, once the forecast ends, the average of past years appears and not an invented figure.

4The jump after the last forecast day in Mallorca

Between the last forecast day and the first day with an average, the view can jump, for example from a cool rainy day to a mild average. That is not a change in the weather but a change in the kind of data.

• The rain column counts years: If it says 3 of 15 years, it rained on that date in three of the 15 years. That is a frequency from the past, not a probability for this year.
• The temperatures are averages of up to 15 years: A single very warm or cool year shifts them, which is why they vary a little from date to date. Take them as an order of magnitude for clothing and plans.

The weather calendar shows the same averages for every day of the year.

5Planning two weeks in Mallorca with this page

• Before you travel: For the second week of the holiday, the month is what counts. The October page and the climate table show what to expect.
• In the first week: Put weather-dependent plans on the days already covered by the 7-day forecast.
• From the middle of the holiday: Day by day, the second week moves into the 10-day forecast. Keep one or two spare days free for a boat trip or a summit.

To look beyond 14 days, Mallorca 16-day weather uses the same split up to day 16.