# Mallorca weather for 14 days: forecast and average > Mallorca weather for 14 days: around 10 days of forecast for Palma, then averages from 15 years. Plus how sure days 8 to 14 really are. Canonical: https://wettermallorca.com/en/14-day-weather/ Updated on: 2026-10-08 Two weeks of Mallorca weather cannot be forecast day by day with fixed values, only the first ten days or so. This page shows both parts separately and explains how much trust days 8 to 14 deserve. ## In short For Mallorca there is a weather forecast for around 10 days, here from MET Norway for Palma. The days after that up to day 14 are not a forecast but averages for the years 2011 to 2025 for each date at the AEMET station Palma Puerto. ECMWF does calculate 15 days ahead, but as a bundle of 51 possible paths, not as one value per day. ## Key points - The view shows around 10 days of forecast for Palma de Mallorca and then averages up to day 14. - The averages rest on 15 years of readings, 2011 to 2025, at the AEMET station Palma Puerto. - Days 8 to 10 are still a forecast, but should only be read as a trend. - For days 11 to 14, the table states plainly that they are not a forecast. - The ECMWF ensemble reaches 15 days ahead and gives a range for those days, not a single value. ## The 14 days for Palma de Mallorca at a glance [[HORIZON:14]] The view has two parts. At the top are the days for which MET Norway supplies a forecast, usually nine or ten. Below, in a separate table, come the remaining days up to day 14, labelled as averages and not as a forecast. For those days the table gives the mean of the highs and of the lows, plus the number of years out of 15 in which 1 mm of rain or more fell on that date. The readings come from the AEMET station Palma Puerto, which sits at a height of 3 m. ## How sure are days 8 to 14 in the Mallorca weather - Days 8 to 10, forecast as a trend: For Mallorca, MET Norway calculates with the high-resolution ECMWF model up to day 10. There the values only come in blocks of six hours. Read warmer or cooler, drier or wetter from them, but not an exact temperature. - Days 11 to 14, a look back only: This is where the source ends. What the table shows is what was usual on those calendar days in Palma in past years. It says nothing about whether your day will be warmer or wetter than usual. The line is drawn firmly on purpose. A day 12 with a sun symbol and an exact temperature would suggest a certainty that does not exist. ## What an ensemble reveals about day 14 in Mallorca ECMWF names two sources of error: nobody knows the state of the atmosphere at the start exactly, and every model only approximates reality. Both amplify as the lead time grows. That is why, for the medium range, ECMWF does not calculate just one path but an ensemble of 51 forecasts up to 15 days ahead: one control run and 50 runs with slightly altered initial conditions and model physics. According to ECMWF, the greater the spread of results, the greater the uncertainty. For day 14, that spread is the information itself, and a single value per day hides it. The data on this page does not include that range. That is why, once the forecast ends, the average of past years appears and not an invented figure. ## The jump after the last forecast day in Mallorca Between the last forecast day and the first day with an average, the view can jump, for example from a cool rainy day to a mild average. That is not a change in the weather but a change in the kind of data. - The rain column counts years: If it says 3 of 15 years, it rained on that date in three of the 15 years. That is a frequency from the past, not a probability for this year. - The temperatures are averages of up to 15 years: A single very warm or cool year shifts them, which is why they vary a little from date to date. Take them as an order of magnitude for clothing and plans. The [weather calendar](https://wettermallorca.com/en/calendar/) shows the same averages for every day of the year. ## Planning two weeks in Mallorca with this page - Before you travel: For the second week of the holiday, the month is what counts. The [October](https://wettermallorca.com/en/october/) page and the [climate table](https://wettermallorca.com/en/climate-table/) show what to expect. - In the first week: Put weather-dependent plans on the days already covered by the [7-day forecast](https://wettermallorca.com/en/7-day-weather/). - From the middle of the holiday: Day by day, the second week moves into the [10-day forecast](https://wettermallorca.com/en/10-day-weather/). Keep one or two spare days free for a boat trip or a summit. To look beyond 14 days, [Mallorca 16-day weather](https://wettermallorca.com/en/forecast/) uses the same split up to day 16. ## Frequently asked questions ### Can you know the weather in Mallorca 14 days ahead? With fixed daily values, only for the first ten days or so, and even those blur towards the end. That is how far the MET Norway forecast reaches. This page fills the remaining days up to day 14 with the average of past years for each date and marks it as such. A temperature for day 14 would claim more than this page knows. ### How sure is the weather for days 8 to 10 in Mallorca? These days are still a forecast, but the least certain part. For Mallorca, MET Norway calculates with the high-resolution ECMWF model up to day 10, on the later days in steps of six hours. Direction and order of magnitude are useful, exact values and times hardly. ### What is in the rows for days 11 to 14 of the Mallorca weather? A look back at the same date in the years 2011 to 2025 at the AEMET station Palma Puerto: the mean of the highs and lows and the number of years with 1 mm of rain or more. That is what an ordinary day at this time looks like, not your travel day. ### Does ECMWF not calculate 15 days ahead for Mallorca? It does, but as an ensemble. ECMWF calculates one control run and 50 forecasts with slightly altered initial conditions and model physics up to 15 days ahead. It describes the result as a range of possible outcomes, and the greater the spread, the greater the uncertainty. The data here does not include that range. ### Why do the Mallorca weather values jump after the last forecast day? Because the kind of data changes there. Up to that point you see the forecast for the current weather situation, after it the average from up to 15 years for the date. A jump between the two rows is therefore not a change in the weather but the switch from forecast to average. ### Why are there no weather symbols at the end of the 14-day view for Mallorca? Because this page has no forecast for those days from which sun or rain could be derived. The table of averages therefore only shows figures: the mean of the highs and lows and how often it rained on that date. A symbol there would pretend to be a forecast. ### When is the 14-day view for Mallorca worth a look? Shortly before the trip, to know the order of magnitude: rather warm or cool, rather dry or changeable. For concrete plans, the first days of the forecast count. Once your travel day moves into the 7-day forecast, that is the better source. ## Sources - [MET Norway, Locationforecast 2.0](https://api.met.no/weatherapi/locationforecast/2.0/documentation), checked on 2026-10-08 - [MET Norway, Locationforecast data model and forecast models](https://api.met.no/doc/locationforecast/datamodel), checked on 2026-10-08 - [MET Norway, licence and attribution (NLOD 2.0, CC BY 4.0)](https://api.met.no/doc/License), checked on 2026-10-02 - [AEMET OpenData, daily climate values](https://opendata.aemet.es/), checked on 2026-10-03 - [AEMET station inventory, station B228 Palma, Puerto (39.5542 N, 2.6253 E, 3 m)](https://opendata.aemet.es/centrodedescargas/productosAEMET), checked on 2026-10-03 - [ECMWF, Quantifying forecast uncertainty](https://www.ecmwf.int/en/research/modelling-and-prediction/quantifying-forecast-uncertainty), checked on 2026-10-08 - [ECMWF, Medium-range forecasts (ensemble up to 15 days)](https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/documentation-and-support/medium-range-forecasts), checked on 2026-10-08